UT Arlington

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	108.0
Current RPI:	108
Expected SOS:	160
Current SOS:	160
Current Record:	20-13
Expected Record:	20-13
Current Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-4
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	108
Expected OOC SOS:	216

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-13	108.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Arlington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	85-80	W	100%
11-18	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	75-89	W	100%
11-21	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	77-76	L	0%
11-24	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	N	89-65	W	100%
11-25	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	90-95	W	100%
11-29	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	69-49	W	100%
12-2	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	65-60	W	100%
12-7	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	62-58	L	0%
12-9	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	78-85	L	0%
12-16	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	65-86	W	100%
12-18	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	90-81	L	0%
12-21	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	77-56	W	100%
12-29	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	90-65	L	0%
12-31	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	80-76	L	0%
1-4	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	86-76	W	100%
1-6	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	91-67	W	100%
1-11	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	77-65	L	0%
1-13	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	71-97	W	100%
1-18	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	65-77	L	0%
1-20	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	71-55	W	100%
1-25	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	81-75	L	0%
1-27	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	74-59	L	0%
2-1	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	89-77	W	100%
2-3	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	87-80	W	100%
2-10	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	70-68	W	100%
2-15	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	84-71	L	0%
2-17	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	100-79	L	0%
2-22	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	83-63	W	100%
2-24	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	89-81	W	100%
3-2	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	82-85	W	100%
3-9	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	N	84-68	W	100%
3-10	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	N	68-71	W	100%
3-11	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	N	74-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Arlington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UT Arlington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UT Arlington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UT Arlington	SB	26.46	26.46	63.70	63.70	7.25	7.25
Georgia St.	SB	5.29	5.29	68.97	68.97	2.01	2.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	5.25	5.25	82.14	82.14	3.37	3.37
Appalachian St.	SB	5.25	5.25	42.86	42.86	-0.75	-0.75
Texas St.	SB	4.05	4.05	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Georgia Southern	SB	3.85	3.85	62.07	62.07	0.93	0.93
Louisiana Monroe	SB	3.79	3.79	46.15	46.15	-0.29	-0.29
Coastal Carolina	SB	3.77	3.77	37.04	37.04	-0.98	-0.98
Troy	SB	2.51	2.51	46.67	46.67	-0.17	-0.17
Little Rock	SB	2.48	2.48	17.24	17.24	-1.63	-1.63
Arkansas St.	SB	2.46	2.46	31.03	31.03	-0.93	-0.93
South Alabama	SB	2.43	2.43	41.38	41.38	-0.42	-0.42
Rice	CUSA	1.71	1.71	17.86	17.86	-1.10	-1.10
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	1.62	1.62	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
BYU	WCC	1.61	1.61	72.73	72.73	0.73	0.73
North Texas	CUSA	1.59	1.59	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Western Carolina	SC	1.59	1.59	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.56	1.56	34.48	34.48	-0.48	-0.48
Alabama	SEC	1.54	1.54	54.55	54.55	0.14	0.14
Niagara	MAAC	1.54	1.54	61.29	61.29	0.35	0.35
Cal Poly	BW	1.52	1.52	25.00	25.00	-0.76	-0.76
Creighton	BE	1.52	1.52	63.33	63.33	0.40	0.40
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.52	1.52	63.33	63.33	0.40	0.40
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.52	1.52	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
UTSA	CUSA	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
UTEP	CUSA	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.17	0.17	88.24	88.24	0.13	0.13
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.15	0.15	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
FIU	CUSA	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Pacific	WCC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	9.68	9.68	-0.11	-0.11
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.07	-0.07
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.00	0.00